SENSEX Expiry Analysis: Strong Call Walls Cap Upside at 85,500 — Bearish-to-Neutral Bias

💡 Note: This analysis is based on AI-powered models and is shared for educational & informational purpose only. यहाँ दिए गए “Buy/Sell” या “Target” signals AI-generated insights हैं — ये किसी प्रकार की personal investment advice नहीं है।

⚔️ SENSEX @ 85,350 — Bearish-to-Neutral Expiry Bias; Upside Capped 85,400–85,500

Expiry: 20 Nov 2025 • View: Expiry-Day (Final)
CMP: 85,310 • Updated: 20 Nov, 10:20 AM IST

SENSEX Derivatives Outlook • Expiry Final

🔹 1️⃣ MULTI-TIMEFRAME PRICE TREND ANALYSIS

🔸 (A) 5-Minute Chart (Expiry Control TF)

• RSI: 61.83 → Mild bullish
• CCI: 55.04 → Positive
• MACD: 57 vs 52 → Bullish but flattening
• ADX: 35.9 → Trend active but weakening

Conclusion (5m): Intraday spikes possible, पर upside पर supply ठोस है। Expiry bias = mild bearish after spikes.

🔸 (B) 30-Minute Chart (Expiry Direction TF)

• RSI: 68.12 → Overbought
• CCI: 128.13 → Extended
• MACD: 145 vs 112 → Bullish momentum fading
• ADX: 19.9 → Weak trend

Conclusion (30m): Overbought + weak ADX — expiry drift downward expected. Supply zone: 85,400–85,500.

🔸 (C) 4-Hour Chart (Macro Bias TF)

• RSI: 65.25 → Bullish
• CCI: 120 → Strong
• MACD: 350 vs 270 → Uptrend intact
• ADX: 17.9 → Weak trend

Conclusion (4H): Macro bullish लेकिन trend strength कम है — expiry-day पर upside continuation कठिन रहेगा।

🔹 2️⃣ OPTION CHART ANALYSIS SUMMARY

📉 85,300 PE — VERY WEAK (5m + 15m)

• RSI: 24–27 → Weak
• CCI: −78 to −176 → Heavy negative
• MACD: −56 to −97 → Bearish continuation
• ADX: 28–35 → Bearish trend intact

PE Conclusion: PE extremely weak — कोई upside support नहीं। Expiry logic = sell on rise.

📈 85,300 CE — RELATIVELY STRONG (5m + 15m)

• RSI: 60–61 → Positive
• CCI: 70–110 → Bullish
• MACD: 8–16 → Bullish slope
• ADX: 26–31 → Trend developing

CE Conclusion: CE stronger है पर expiry ceiling (85,400–85,500) की वजह से CE पर भी sell on spike strategy बेहतर रहेगी।

🔹 3️⃣ OPTION CHAIN ANALYSIS (Strong + Clean)

Side	Strikes	Observation
CE Side (Writing)	85,300 – 85,400 – 85,500	बहुत heavy writing → premium fall; upside strictly capped
PE Side (Support)	85,200 – 85,100 – 85,000	Support है पर strong नहीं → downside limited but drift possible

📊 Smart Money View: Call writers aggressively control premium — ceiling at 85,400–85,500. Put writers defensive — downside drift to ~85,150 possible. Expiry sentiment: Bearish-to-Neutral.

🔹 4️⃣ PROJECTED TARGETS / EXPIRY-DAY TRADING VIEW

Instrument	Action	Entry Range	Target	Stop Loss
SENSEX Spot	SELL	85,300 – 85,360	85,180 → 85,100	85,480

📑 TECHNICAL SUMMARY

• 🧭 Smart Money Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral
• 🔻 Expiry Drift Zone: 85,150 – 85,220
• 🔺 Upside Cap (Strong OI Wall): 85,400 – 85,500
• 🧱 Downside Extension: 85,080 (only if fall accelerates)

🏁 FINAL CONCLUSION

⚔️ SENSEX expiry clearly bearish-to-neutral. CE में strong writing और PE में weakness साफ़ दिखती है — इसलिए upside capped है और expiry-day पर downward drift की संभावना सबसे अधिक है.

🎯 Expected Expiry Settlement: 85,150 – 85,220 (High probability) • Lower spike possible: 85,080

⚠️ यह सिर्फ market-structure आधारित observation है — financial advice नहीं। Risk management आवश्यक।

📌 Snapshot

Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral

CMP: 85,310

🧭 Key Zones

Support

• 85,150 — Expected expiry drift band
• 85,200 — Short-term support

Resistance

• 85,350–85,400 — Immediate hurdle
• 85,400–85,500 — Heavy CE defence / Upside cap

⚡ Indicators Snapshot

• 5m RSI: 61.8 → mild bullish but flattening
• 30m RSI: 68.1 → overbought
• 4H MACD: strong bullish but trend weak
• ADX: 17.9–35.9 → mixed strength across TFs

❓ FAQ

Q: क्या SENSEX 85,500 cross कर सकता है आज?
A: Unlikely without clearing heavy CE writing at 85,400–85,500.

Q: Settlement कहाँ होगा?
A: 85,150 – 85,220 expected.

Q: Option bias क्या बता रहा है?
A: CE writers active; PE weak → expiry bias bearish-to-neutral; sell-on-spike preferred.

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