💡 Note: This analysis is based on AI-powered models and is shared for educational & informational purpose only. यहाँ दिए गए “Buy/Sell” या “Target” signals AI-generated insights हैं — ये किसी प्रकार की personal investment advice नहीं है।
NIFTY 50 @ 25,960 — Bearish-to-Neutral Expiry Bias Below 26,050 ⚠️
Updated: 18 Nov, 09:39 AM IST • Active Range: 25,880 – 26,050
🔹 1️⃣ NIFTY Price Structure (Spot)& Technical Trend (Multi-Timeframe)
🕓 5-Min Chart (Strong Bearish Pressure)
- RSI: 40.22 → Weak
- CCI: −141 → Deep negative
- MACD: −4.08 vs +2.28 → Bearish crossover
- ADX: 33.6 → Strong bearish trend
Interpretation: 5m chart bearish. Every bounce getting sold. Expiry sentiment weak below 26,000.
🕒 30-Min Chart (Mild Positive but Weak Trend)
- RSI: 54.66 → Slightly positive
- CCI: +33 → Mild bullish
- MACD: 34.35 vs 34.11 → Bullish but flattening
- ADX: 19 → Weak trend
Interpretation: Supply visible near 26,000–26,050. Neutral-to-slightly-bearish expiry setup unless 26,050 breaks decisively.
🕓 4-Hour Chart (Bullish but Weak Strength)
- RSI: 58.7 → Positive
- CCI: +97 → Bullish
- MACD: 81 vs 58 → Strong bullish
- ADX: 18 → Weak trend
Interpretation: H4 remains bullish structurally but lacks momentum. Major supply zone: 26,200–26,300. Expiry drift likely sideways-to-down due to lower-TF weakness.
🔹 2️⃣ Option Chain Analysis (18 Nov Expiry — Today)
| Zone | CE Activity | PE Activity | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25,900 | Heavy writing | Strong | Call wall + battle |
| 26,000 | Massive CE writing | Unwinding | Expiry ceiling |
| 26,050 | Strongest CE writing | Unwinding | Upside capped |
| 26,100–26,200 | High OI | Weak | Strong resistance |
📊 PCR ≈ 0.70–0.75 → Bearish Bias
Smart Money Flow: CE writers heavy from 25,900–26,200. PE unwinding at 26,000–26,050 shows weak put defence → downside open towards 25,850–25,900.
🔹 3️⃣ Option Chart Observations
🔸 NIFTY 25,950 CE
- RSI: 28 → Deep oversold
- CCI: −186 → Extreme negative
- MACD: −10 vs −4 → Bearish continuation
- ADX: 35 → Strong downtrend
Interpretation: CE unwinding confirms 26,000 expiry ceiling.
🔸 NIFTY 25,950 PE
- RSI: 52 → Mildly positive
- CCI: +114 → Strong short-term positive
- MACD: +0.94 vs −0.75 → Bullish crossover
- ADX: 27 → Trend gaining
Interpretation: PE buyers active — supports expected downside drift.
🔹 4️⃣ Expiry Settlement View (Today)
| Session | Bias | Likely Zone | Behavior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morning | Mild pullback | 25,980–26,020 | CE selling zone |
| Midday | Sideways → Down | 25,930–25,900 | PE buyers active |
| Expiry Close | Bearish Drift | 25,880–25,920 | Expected settlement |
🎯 Expiry-Day Trading View (Neutral Observation)
| Instrument | Observation |
|---|---|
| 25,950 PE | Strongest buying |
| 26,000 CE | Heavy writing — likely to decay |
| NIFTY Spot | Bias below 26,050 |
📑 Technical Summary
- 🧭 Smart Money Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral
- 💥 Expiry Resistance: 26,000–26,050
- 🧱 Expiry Support: 25,880–25,900
- 📉 Settlement Expectation: 25,880–25,920
🧠 Final Conclusion
⚔️ NIFTY expiry day shows strong bearish dominance. Call writers defending 26,050; puts weak above 26,000. Lower-TFs confirm intraday weakness while H4 lacks momentum.
🔻 Expiry Drift Zone: 25,880–25,920
🔺 Upside Cap: 26,050
➡️ Final Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral expiry
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